The R word...yes we are talking about a recession here. 

We track a lot of indicators such as the 5 Year Treasury Yield, the Treasury Yield Curve, ISM Purchasing Mangers Index, Year Over Year Growth, the Consumer Confidence Indicator and several others.

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This is mainly for business purposes because we have a steady non-emotional plan. 

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Once a month I go back and re-adjust numbers, and I have to be honest, this is a confusing recession if we are currently in one. I don't think we are fully there yet. There is no doubt inflation is insane and unsecured debt will continue to rise. The recipe is there though, and the sauce is cooking. The stock market is in a Bear Market one week and in a Bull Market the next. This one is different. 

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Consumer confidence is low yet spending is still there. 

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I've found certain indicators to be almost a crystal ball in the past, but again, this one is different. And that's OK. 

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Having said that, I stand firm that I see the true recession starting in 2023 and not 2022 as most have been convinced, and I'm not certain it's going to be a particularly horrible one. That's to be seen based on any number of factors that may or may not happen. There is no denying that we are not in great shape. 

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Now we need to have our talk about recessions and advertising, as that's our relationship with you. 

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Here's the simple fact. Recessions for businesses that have good financial practices and that are in good shape are an absolute gift. While everyone is freaking out, if you go into it with the mentality that you're going to stay the course during harder times while your competitors cower in the corner, you're going to come out on top. 

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Keep Advertising. Why? 

First off you are getting a major discount. When others pull out, we get to drop our bids. That in turn means you steal their spots for cheap. This happened during Covid and we were able to smash the competition. It didn't take them too long to realize they'd made a mistake.

Second, part of staying relevant as a business is your brand being burned into people’s brains. If done right, there is nothing they can do to combat this. The brain will associate frequency of exposure to something it needs to remember to survive. It's really an interesting thing. When a recession ends and your business is stamped in everyones brain, you win. Your competition has to start from scratch and play catch-up. We wish them luck...but really it's on them. 

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Third, despite what you may be seeing, your numbers are still going to be better than if you were to just go silent. 

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One issue we are currently having is our year to year comparisons for our clients which is a major indicator for us for the business itself and our advertising goals. The bailouts provided an influx of quick guilt free cash, and we all benefited from that as businesses. However, it wasn't organic. It wasn't real. But it was nice wasn't it? Now we have to come back down to a realistic place. So what we may do is look at 2 year indicators from you so we have a better understanding as we move into a probable downturn. 

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Stay The Course

Instinct is that thing that can help us in split moment decisions, yet kill us in long term strategy. Even us...we think to ourselves, we should really be cutting back on software that costs us thousands to help our clients succeed. That would be a really stupid thing to cut off on our end, as tempting as it may be. Not going to happen. 

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We as a business will also be pushing a new software (not necessarily to you) that we have a partnership in that will help clients keep their websites running crazy fast with payment systems and scanners that use AI to help us determine many things. So because this is a great product, we will pay to advertise it regardless of what the economy looks like. 

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Here is a fact...every single recession we have ever had in this country has ended. Usually in 18 months or less. 

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This post is not going to help our older clients quite as much, because they've seen what happens when you push through a recession as a leader that shows strength. They've already won before. Others may need a reminder. Some may simply understand it naturally. 

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So here's what we're going to do. We will use this recession to our advantage in every single way possible. 

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Take a moment to think about when the truly successful money managers, real estate investors and so on make their moves. They invest when there is fear. They stay relevant when everyone else goes to their corner. Advertising is an investment. 

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Instead of panicking, let's look forward to how we are going to make this recession give us all amazing returns during the recovery phase. It's going to be awesome to be a part of it. 

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I look forward to working with all of you for a very long time. Talk soon.

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Joe

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Photo Credit: SIphotography

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